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How U.S. Equities Could Shine in 2025
While risks remain, strong fundamentals and a favorable economic backdrop could position U.S. equities for a solid performance in the year ahead.
- Equity Insights
- Portfolio Construction
- Market & Investment Trends
Key Points
What it is
We explore the outlook for U.S. equities in 2025, examining how corporate earnings, economic trends, and potential policy changes may shape market performance.
Why it matters
Understanding the forces behind U.S. equity performance helps investors navigate a landscape of optimism tempered by potential risks.
Where it's going
Supported by strong corporate earnings and a favorable economic backdrop, the market is expected to experience positive returns, even while inflation and policy shifts bear watching.
Looking ahead to 2025, we believe U.S. equities will continue to deliver for investors. Supported by strong corporate earnings and a favorable economic backdrop, the market is expected to experience positive returns , even while inflation and policy shifts bear watching. What does this mean for investors? Let’s take a closer look.
The classic 60/40 portfolio is having a standout year. So far in 2024, it’s up 12%, which is the second consecutive year of strong returns for balanced portfolios. This is well above the average 8% return since 1987. A key driver of this increase is global equities, which surged 19%, led by U.S. large caps. In the future, we anticipate more modest gains, with U.S. equities continuing to lead the charge.
Our message for 2025 is “,” thanks to healthier corporate earnings and a better economic backdrop than most other regions. Proposed policies of the incoming administration — like tax cuts and reduced regulation — could provide a boost to U.S. equities, while, higher tariffs may weigh on Chinese or European profits, as they are more exposed to international trade. These factors reinforce our confidence in U.S. equities for the year ahead. With that said, there is a wide range of potential outcomes, supporting some regional diversification in portfolios.
While we maintain our base case for positive economic conditions, we are still keeping an eye on inflation-fueled risk. Our top two risk cases incorporate the possibility of inflation as a result of potential U.S. presidential policies. In the more benign risk scenario, stronger growth would accompany inflation and equities would outperform fixed income. In the second risk scenario, there’s no positive growth impulse and higher inflation would weigh on equities.
While we maintain a general preference for equities over fixed income — reflecting our base case of continued economic growth — we also think some inflation protection through inflation-linked bonds is prudent. Overall, we’re bullish on U.S. equities heading into 2025 even when considering the unknowns ahead with a new administration on the horizon. We believe that remaining close to home, equity-wise, could be a reasonable choice for investors.
Main Point
U.S. Equities: Positioned for Opportunity in 2025
We’re bullish on U.S. equities heading into 2025 even when considering the unknowns ahead with a new administration on the horizon. We believe that remaining close to home, equity-wise, could be a reasonable choice for investors.
2025 Global Investment Outlook
Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D.
Chief Investment Officer — Global Asset Allocation
Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., is chief investment officer of global asset allocation for Northern Trust Asset Management. She is responsible for managing investment performance, process and philosophy for multi-asset strategies globally. Anwiti leads NTAM’s strategic asset allocation, tactical asset allocation and capital market assumptions, and oversees the portfolio construction group and multi-manager business.
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