- Who We Serve
- What We Do
- About Us
- Insights & Research
- Who We Serve
- What We Do
- About Us
- Insights & Research
Growth is expensive. Innovation doesn't have to be.
- Insights
- NT Quantitative Strategies
Investors often assume that buying innovative companies means paying premium prices for familiar growth stocks. It is an understandable shortcut, but potentially an expensive one.
Traditional growth strategies favor companies already showing rapid sales or earnings gains. Innovation strategies look earlier, seeking underappreciated R&D, technology and organizational capabilities that can drive future earnings before stock prices fully reflect them.
The takeaway: With the right tools, innovation can be a measurable firm characteristic. When measured correctly and implemented carefully with appropriate risk controls, it can provide a differentiated source of long-term equity alpha.
What Does Innovation Look like?
Innovation takes many forms. Some firms innovate through formal research and intellectual property. Others innovate through digital transformation, operational excellence, business-model change or organizational capability. Exhibit 1 shows select examples.
The Price of Growth vs. Innovation
Identifying innovative companies early can help investors avoid paying a growth premium later. The MSCI World Growth Index traded at 35 times earnings and 8.5 times book equity as of the end of 2025, compared with 24 times earnings and four times book equity for the MSCI World Index.
Our research shows that strong innovators don’t need to be today’s expensive growth companies. Roche, Schneider Electric, Assa Abloy and Baker Hughes all ranked near the top of the MSCI World Index universe on innovation score (Exhibit 2). Baker Hughes offers the starkest example: an innovation score at the 89th percentile (100% the most innovative) and a growth score at only the 12th (100% the highest growth). This suggests an opportunity for alpha by buying innovation early before the market recognizes the fruits of that innovation later.
Measure What Accounting and Markets Can Miss
The reason the market tends to under-appreciate innovation is because traditional accounting and investment approaches can understate it. Accounting practices often expense research and development (R&D), software, data, brand and organizational knowledge immediately, depressing current earnings even when they strengthen future earnings power.
Investors can close that gap by seeking innovation across four complementary signals:
- R&D: Reported R&D expenditure is not a complete measure of innovation. Some companies innovate through software adoption, process improvements, customer experience, supply-chain design or business-model evolution.
- Patents: Patent quality, originality, breadth and citation reach can help distinguish genuinely valuable innovation from routine patent activity.
- Digital innovation: Digital adoption can reshape business processes, improve efficiency, enhance customer engagement, create data advantages and enable scalable growth. Traditional financial statements often do not capture this well. AI-powered natural language analysis of company filings can identify evidence of technology adoption and digital transformation.
- Innovation culture: A culture favorable to innovation is a critical intangible asset that is largely invisible in financial statements. AI-powered research of publicly available employee feedback, controlled for inherent biases, may provide insight on whether a company’s culture is innovative or stagnant.
A note of caution: A common criticism of innovation investing is that it’s a disguised bet on technology stocks, U.S. equities or highly valued growth companies. To manage these risks, investors should control for over-concentration in sectors, regions and market capitalization, along with the higher risks of investing in firms valued on long-term future earnings growth.
From Hidden Innovation to Future Profitability
Measurement only matters if it identifies an economically meaningful outcome. In an analysis covering January 1996 through December 2025, companies identified as innovative had a positive coefficient for future profitability growth while companies identified as growth had a negative coefficient, both with high statistical significance (Exhibit 4).
The result supports a provocative conclusion: Markets may be good at pricing current growth but less effective at valuing the intangible capabilities that produce future growth.
Playbook: Uncovering Future Growth
To be clear, we are not suggesting that investors abandon growth. But rather they should stop treating growth as a sufficient proxy for innovation. We have highlighted some ways to do so:
- Search beyond conventional growth metrics. Look for potentially hidden innovation characteristics across R&D, patents, digital adoption and organizational culture.
- Distinguish innovation from exposure. Control for unintended sector, regional, market-capitalization and market-sensitivity bets.
- Test the economic payoff. Assess whether the combined innovation signal predicts improving future profitability.
Growth may be expensive because the market already recognizes it. Innovation can be different precisely because its economic value remains harder to observe. The opportunity is not simply to buy today’s fastest-growing companies. It is to identify the companies building tomorrow’s earnings power before the market gives them full credit.
Contact Us
Interested in learning more about our expertise and how we can help?
Alpha is the additional return a portfolio or strategy provides beyond what would be expected for the amount of risk it takes.
Barra GEMLT Growth model computes an asset's sensitivities to industry groups, market characteristics and fundamental data. This includes to the growth factor that is based on earnings and sales growth characteristics, among others.
Beta: A beta investment means a portfolio or investment has the same risk as the market, as represented by a chosen market index.
Cap-weighted index is an index in which each constituent is weighted based on its market capitalization. This approach gives larger companies a greater influence on index performance than smaller ones.
Correlations: Correlation is the extent of which two securities move with each other, where highly correlated securities have similar return patterns. Low correlation between securities often contributes to diversification, a way to lower portfolio risk.
Intangible asset is a nonphysical asset, such as software, data, intellectual property, brand value or organizational knowledge, that may contribute to a company’s long-term earnings power.
Market capitalization is a company's market value, calculated by multiplying the company's share price by the number of shares outstanding.
MSCI World IMI Index captures large-, mid- and small-cap representation across developed markets countries.
{{msci_world_index}}
MSCI World Growth Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across developed market countries.
Return on invested capital is after-tax profitability of capital invested by a company’s shareholders and debt holders.
Risk-adjusted return is an investment return evaluated in relation to the amount of risk taken to achieve it.
T-stat is a statistical measure that helps assess whether a relationship shown in a regression analysis is likely to be meaningful rather than the result of chance. For large, normally distributed data, a T-stat greater than 2 (or less than -2) suggests statistical significance.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Northern Trust Asset Management is composed of Northern Trust Investments, Inc., Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, Northern Trust Fund Managers (Ireland) Limited, Northern Trust Global Investments Japan, K.K., NT Global Advisors, Inc., 50 South Capital Advisors, LLC, Northern Trust Asset Management Australia Pty Ltd, and investment personnel of The Northern Trust Company, The Northern Trust Company (Singapore Branch), and The Northern Trust Company of Hong Kong Limited.
Issued in the United Kingdom by Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (License Number 191916); issued in the European Economic Area (EEA) by Northern Trust Fund Managers (Ireland) Limited, regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (License Number C21810); issued in Australia by Northern Trust Asset Management (Australia) Limited (ACN 648 476 019), which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (License Number 529895) and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC); issued in Hong Kong by The Northern Trust Company of Hong Kong Limited, which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; and issued in Singapore by The Northern Trust Company (Singapore Branch), which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
For Canada, Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) markets, this information is directed to institutional, professional and wholesale clients or investors only and should not be relied upon by retail clients or investors. For U.S. NTAM, the information contained herein is intended for use with all current or prospective clients of Northern Trust Investments, Inc (NTI).
This content may not be edited, altered, revised, paraphrased, or otherwise modified without the prior written permission of Northern Trust Asset Management (NTAM). The information contained herein is intended for use with current or prospective clients of Northern Trust Investments, Inc (NTI) or its affiliates. The information is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. NTAM and its affiliates may have positions in and may effect transactions in the markets, contracts and related investments different than described in this information. This information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed, and is subject to change. Information does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy, is not intended as investment advice and does not take into account all the circumstances of each investor.
This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to any transaction and should not be treated as legal advice, investment advice or tax advice. Recipients should not rely upon this information as a substitute for obtaining specific legal or tax advice from their own professional legal or tax advisors. References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Indices and trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Information is subject to change based on market or other conditions.
Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI refers to computational systems designed to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as pattern recognition, decision-making, and prediction. In investment management, AI may be used to support portfolio construction, risk assessment, and trading strategies. Machine Learning (ML): ML is a subset of AI that enables systems to identify patterns based on data inputs without being explicitly programmed. ML models may be used in stock selection to identify investment opportunities based on historical and real-time data. Natural Language Processing (NLP): NLP is a field of AI focused on the interpretation and generation of human language by machines. In financial contexts, NLP may be applied to analyze textual data such as earnings reports to inform investment decisions. Large Language Models (LLMs): LLMs are advanced NLP systems trained on extensive datasets to understand and generate human-like text. In investment management, LLMs may assist in synthesizing qualitative information or generating insights, but do not independently make investment decisions.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Performance returns and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate. Performance returns contained herein are subject to revision by NTAM. Comparative indices shown are provided as an indication of the performance of a particular segment of the capital markets and/or alternative strategies in general. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in any index. Net performance returns are reduced by investment management fees and other expenses relating to the management of the account. Gross performance returns contained herein include reinvestment of dividends and other earnings, transaction costs, and all fees and expenses other than investment management fees, unless indicated otherwise. For U.S. NTI prospects or clients, please refer to Part 2a of the Form ADV or consult an NTI representative for additional information on fees.
Unless otherwise noted, the statements expressed herein are solely opinions of Northern Trust. Northern Trust does not make any representation, assurance, or other promise as to the accuracy, impact, or potential occurrence of any events or outcomes expressed in such opinions.
Forward-looking statements and assumptions are NTAM’s current estimates or expectations of future events or future results based upon proprietary research and should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a portfolio may achieve. Actual results could differ materially from the results indicated by this information. Historical trends are not predictive of future results.
Not FDIC insured | May lose value | No bank guarantee